I have used a craps simulator and the pass line wins far more often than the don't pass side. I can see each number rolled, so it doesn't just spit out the words 'Pass' or 'Don't Pass'.
How does the house make a 1.4% edge on the pass line if it is winning so many times more frequently than the Don't Pass side?
Maybe I have just seen a very, very long Pass line win streak, or does the Pass line always win more often than the Don't Pass side and the house makes it odds some other way?

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Last edited by: Tanko on Nov 15, 2019

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The Pass either Wins or Loses, whereas the Don't Pass Wins, Loses or Standsoff. So the Don't Pass wins less often, loses whenever the Pass Wins, and standoffs on 12.
P W: 49.293% P L: 50.707%
DP W: 47.929% DP T : 2.778% DP L: 49.293%
If you ignored the standoffs DP wins 49.299% and loses 50.701%, so has a slightly lower House Edge.

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winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

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When 10 out of 10 shooters don't make their point, it's best to bet DP with triple odds. They may be sharp with come-out 7 winners, but not making the point is where you'll get the advantage, especially if they are sharp with the point 7-out.
If I'm alone at the table, maybe I'll set the dice for a 5 or a 9 on the come-out, and set for a 7 after the point is established.

I know there is no 'proper' answer, but what is the absolute longest number of P/DP decisions combined where the Pass Line loss rate should fall back in line with the expected stats? 500 decisions? 1,000, 5,000?
I was thinking there must be an upper limit at some point.
In other words, after how many total decisions should it be before I start to see a 1.41% edge for the house (or in the case of the current simulator, at 500 decisions and climbing I am still way in favor of the pass line.

You'll probably hit your peak upside around 1,000 decisions, and you'll have a hard time not being negative by the time you get to 5,000 decisions.
If you play for several hours a day, try to quit ahead well before you get to 5,000 decisions. It only gets worse the longer you go on. Like start each day with a simple buy-in and have win goals like double or triple your money unless you're on a hot streak. For tax reasons, my gambling diary works better if I quit the day ahead. Losses may not be tax deductible, so I try to limit those.
I've seen graphs where simple PL & DP results just show a negligible downward slope that adds up over time, but when you add odds bets you can seriously affect your balance, be it positive or negative. Some people like to play a couple come bets with odds and a long roll can make up for a couple days of losses.

In the case you gave where there were 27,000 more pass line decisions, had a player been betting $1000 per hand, would that player have won $27,000,000 over the 1,980,000 Come Out Rolls? Or, are you saying DP wins is excluding Pushes on the DP side, so in essence there would still have been a loss on the P side corresponding roughly to the house edge of 1.41% (had one been flat betting the whole time).
My scenario is after almost 2,200 decisions I am at a Pass ratio of 170 to DP ratio of 143 (170 wins per 143 losses, had I bet only the P side). This seems like a lot of wins on the pass side for a very long time period... although I get it, in the scheme of things, it could/should reverse back to where the Pass side is at 49.28 wins (P) to 50.72 losses (DP).
I was wondering if this number of winning pass decisions (as a ratio of wins to losses) is atypical for a string of 2,200 decisions??
Hoping you/someone has been playing long enough to have seen this or know the math behind if this is possible, or maybe if the simulator is skewed toward Pass Line decisions...

I think you may have just answered my next post... which is that by 5000 decisions is where at the very latest, I should likely see a turnaround. Thank you... I had missed this reply before I posted a follow up to 7craps's reply.

February 14th, 2010 at 12:26:06 AM
goatcabin
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/972-the-hoax-that-is-the-1-41-house-advantage-on-pass-line-bets/4/
1980, of which 976 are winners, 1004 losers, 784 are seven-outs, so the probability of sevening out on any given bet is 784/1980 = .396
Down 28 units after 1980 decisions. YMMV
These are decisions on your bet, not the number of times the dice are thrown.